DIHK Reports

The key findings of the DIHK Economic Survey Early Summer 2024

•  The mood in the economy remains gloomy. The business situation continues to deteriorate. 28 percent of companies report a good situation, while 23 percent report a poor one. The balance of the situation assessment continues its downward trend, dropping slightly from seven to now five points.
• While the business expectations of companies are brightening, they remain overall pessimistic. In particular, the proportion of companies with negative business expectations has noticeably decreased (26 percent compared to previously 35 percent). Only 16 percent of companies expect an improvement in the next twelve months. In balance, the ongoing negative expectations climb from minus 21 to minus ten points
• Domestic demand has replaced energy and commodity prices as the most common business risk (55 percent). Three business risks are mentioned by 54 percent of companies in second place as risks: economic policy framework conditions, energy and commodity prices, and the shortage of skilled workers. More than 5,900 companies have taken advantage of the opportunity to provide free-text responses regarding economic policy framework conditions. By far the most frequently mentioned keyword is "bureaucracy".
• Despite a slight recovery in the global economy, the growth in industrial export expectations is modest: 26 percent of companies expect exports to decrease in the next twelve months, while 21 expect them to increase. The balance of export expectations increases only slightly from minus seven to minus five points.
• Investment propensity improves only slightly and remains weak overall: While 24 percent of companies plan increased investments again, 31 percent must reduce investments. The balance of investment intentions increases from minus nine to minus seven points.
• The financial situation of companies remains unchanged: Still, 40 percent consider their financial situation problematic.
• Companies' hiring intentions remain cautious. 13 percent intend to hire more staff, while 20 percent expect a decrease in employment. The resulting balance stands at minus seven points (compared to previously minus eight points), noticeably below the long-term average of zero points
• Forecast: Given the survey results, no economic dynamism is apparent. The DIHK expects economic output to stagnate (0.0 percent) this y