Fortnightly Economic Update – 6 November 2025
Green shoots are emerging across the economy as job numbers stabilise, hours worked begin to recover, and confidence lifts in both retail and construction. Businesses are reporting early signs of new activity, supported by easing trade tensions after progress in US–China talks. Strength in tourism and South Island economic activity adds to the sense of cautious momentum. Yet many households remain under financial strain, with weak purchasing confidence and rising hardship indicators showing the recovery is not being felt evenly.
Fortnightly Economic Update – 20 November 2025
Manufacturing is showing renewed life with rising new orders, while easing food and rent costs and lower US tariffs create a more supportive backdrop for households and exporters. Despite these positives, services activity remains subdued, consumers are still hesitant to spend, and China’s slowdown is weighing on sentiment. House prices remain soft and migration is below average, tempering the upswing. This update unpacks the competing forces shaping the recovery and what they might mean heading into the holiday period.
© The Treasury - New Zealand