Fortnightly Economic Update – 12 February 2026
The labour market is beginning to turn, with rising employment, hours worked and participation pointing to a gradual recovery despite a lift in unemployment.
Broader economic indicators suggest activity is strengthening, supported by improving consumer confidence, higher commodity prices and a pickup in residential investment.
Globally, growth remains steady with stronger business activity surveys and a stabilising US labour market, although China’s softer start to the year highlights ongoing risks.
While spare capacity is still elevated and wage growth subdued, the outlook points to improving household incomes and firmer economic momentum through 2026.
Fortnightly Economic Update – 26 February 2026
Monetary policy remains supportive as the OCR is held steady, with inflation expected to ease and underpin a continued, though gradual, economic recovery.
Retail activity and household spending are showing signs of life, but housing market weakness and low migration continue to weigh on momentum.
Global conditions remain broadly positive, although uncertainty around evolving US tariff policies persists.
While lower inflation and stable interest rates provide a favourable backdrop, the recovery is likely to be uneven, with cautious consumers and soft house prices tempering the pace of growth heading further into 2026.
© The Treasury - New Zealand