Fortnightly Economic Update – 11 June 2026
Indicators ahead of the March quarter GDP release pointed to a strengthening New Zealand economy, with manufacturing, retail, wholesale trade and export volumes expected to support broad-based growth.
While the construction sector remained a drag on activity, recent building consent data showed encouraging signs of improvement, supported by stronger residential approvals and continued growth in Canterbury.
Globally, higher oil prices driven by the ongoing Middle East conflict continued to lift inflation and push interest rates higher, increasing risks to global growth and financial conditions.
Although domestic momentum remained positive, elevated energy costs, supply chain uncertainty and weaker construction activity were expected to weigh on the pace of the recovery through 2026.
Fortnightly Economic Update – 25 June 2026
March quarter GDP confirmed the recovery had gained momentum before the Middle East conflict, with broad-based growth supported by stronger exports, business investment, tourism and household spending.
Lower fuel prices and stronger electronic card spending in May provided some relief for households, while easing inflation pressures suggested the economy may prove more resilient than previously expected.
Despite improving conditions, the housing market remained subdued, with weak sales activity and cautious buyer sentiment continuing to constrain residential investment.
Global uncertainty persists, but easing oil prices and continued recovery in tourism and migration provide support for growth, although higher energy costs and softer global demand remain key risks to the outlook.
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